Economics, and Development
Including: Exponential economics. Enterprise
examples (sectors, businesses, methods) of accelerating change.
Management at the speed of technological change.
distinguished thought- and change-leaders are not affiliated with
ASF, but where we have contact information, they are all
formally invited to attend our annual conference, Accelerating
Change. Others to suggest? Please let
us know. Potential candidates should have published work that
deals uniquely, incisively and pragmatically with some scientific,
technological, business, or social dimension of accelerating change.
and underrepresented minority
leaders are listed in green, and international
leaders in orange. Accompanying each individual's entry are sample
publications, and occasional ASF comments regarding topics of interest
for future Accelerating
Change or Acceleration
Studies conferences. Each
leader has been categorized on the basis of our subjective assessment,
from a small sample of their work. All may contact
us to edit, recategorize, multiply categorize, or delist their
entries at any time.
Ichak Adizes, Mastering
Change, 1992; Managing
Corporate Lifecycles, 2001
Philip Anderson, (The Economy as an Evolving Complex System,
Brian Arthur, SFI Fellow.
Journal of Evolutionary Economics
The Markle Foundation.
Empowering society via communications media and IT.
Warren Bennis, The Temporary Society: What is Happening
Business and Family Life in America Under the
Impact of Accelerating Change, 1998
Erik Bryn-Jolfsson, MIT Economist and Lorin Hitt,
Comment: Co-authored paper in Beyond Computation.
Firms that adopt decentralized organizational and work structures
appear to have a higher contribution of information technology to
productivity. The company has to be ready to apply the technology
both structurally and in management. Classic differential choices
exemplified by Wal-Mart (IT maximizing) vs. K-Mart (minimizing).
Or the U.S. (labor laws allowing creative destruction/downsizing)
vs. Europe (tightly regulated labor laws).
Steven Burrill, VC, Burrill
& Company. Real-World Biotechnology Scenarios
Jim Carroll, Futurist, Trendwatcher, and Innovation
Expert. (Ontario, Canada) Website.
[Accelerating] Science Will Change Careers"
Jack Dangermond, CEO, ESRI,
Geographic Information Systems leaders
Stan Davis, 2020
Vision, 1992; Future
Perfect, 1997; Blur,
from the Future, 2001; It's
Brad DeLong, Economist, UCB. Homepage.
Estimating World GDP, 1 Million B.C.—Present. GDP population
Suggests 3 percent annual economic growth is feasible.
(Release 2.0, 1997. Chair, EFF.)
James Dyson, founder and CEO, Dyson
Appliances, Ltd. Privately held company, and the leading vaccum
cleaner brand in U.S., Britain, and Japan (BusinessWeek,
Inventor of cyclonic bagless vacuum cleaner. Instant hand
dryer (Dyson Airblade).
Inspired by futurist Buckminster Fuller.
Extensive prototyper. Like Thomas Edison, Dyson developed
an astonishing 5,000 prototypes before releasing his first cyclonic
Founder, Dyson School
of Design Innovation in England.
Charles Fine (Clockspeed, 1998)
Robert Fogel, Economist, Cliometrician (Scientific
Study of History), and Futurist. Nobel Prize Winner. Wikipage.
Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100, 2004
Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism,
Road to the Past? Two Views of History, 1984
Bill Gates, CTO, Microsoft (The Road Ahead, 1996 Business
at the Speed of Thought, 2000)
Andy Grove, CEO, Intel. (Only the Paranoid Survive,
Keith Halper, CEO, Kuma
Convergence of simulation and news; Modeling planetary
Technical Director, Radical
Entertainment (Computer Gaming)
Paul Hawken, Natural Capital Institute.One
Ecology of Commerce, 1994; Natural
The sustainable technological future
Michael Helfrich, CEO, Blueforce
Groupware; Secure global tactical collaboration spaces.
Sun Microsystems. Systers/IWT.
Dale Jorgenson, Economist, Harvard
Comment: "In 1995, the semiconductor product
cycle shortened from three years to two. This drove IT to create
a higher level of business productivity. Between 1972 and 1995 labor
productivity and total factor productivity rose 1.4 percent per
year. Between 1995 to 2000, these metrics rose 2.5 percent per year,
due primarily to the shorter semiconductor product cycle."
A 2002 paper by Jorgenson, Stiroh, and Mun Ho, an economist at Resources
for the Future (Washington D.C. based think tank) concludes 2.2
percent annual growth is reasonable for next 5-10 years.
Boyan Jovanovic, Economist, U. of Chicago. "Moore's Law and Learning
by Doing," 2002.
Steve Jurvetson, Co-Founder, Draper
Fisher Jurvetson. "Transcending
Moore's Law," 2001
Investment in accelerating change: the venture challenge;
Kevin Kelly (New Rules for the New Economy, 1998,
Out of Control, 1994)
Richard Koch, The 80/20 Principle,
1997, The Natural Laws of
Paul Krugman (The Self-Organizing Economy, 1996)
Michael Malone, Editor, Forbes
Virtual Corporation, 1992; Infinite
Loop (Apple Co.), 1999; Intellectual
Capital, 1997; Betting
It All, 2001
Tech business cycles; Saturation effects in technology
"Shift Happens," 1997, "Fill
and Kill," 2000, "Innovation and Markets," 2000
Stanley Metcalfe (Evolutionary Economics and Creative
Christopher Meyer, Ernst & Young Center for Business
Cycle Time, 1993; Blur,
Intelligence, 2001; It's
Nathan Myhrvold, Former CTO, Microsoft; VC, Intellectual
Ventures. "Exponential Economy",
It's Getting Better all the Time, 2000
Max More, Director of Content Solutions, Many
Proactionary Principle," 2004; "Track
7 Tech Vectors to Take Advantage of Technological Acceleration,"
David Moschella, Columnist, Computerworld
of Power, 1997; Customer-Driven
Megatrends, 1982; Megatrends 2000,
1990; Global Paradox, 1995
Edward Newman, CEO, Xybernaut.
Wearable and wireless computing.
Sorcha Ni Heilidhe
Senior Editor, NUA
Internet Surveys. Internet growth metrics.
Gordon Moore, Co-Founder, Intel
Moore's Law; "Some Personal Perspectives on
Research in the Semiconductor Industry," in
Rosenbloom, Richard S., and William J. Spencer
Engines of Innovation, 1996
Exceptional Returns: The Economic
Value of America's Investment in Medical Research, 2000
David Nolte, Physics, Purdue U (optical and quantum computing)
at Light Speed, 2001
Paul Ray, AmericanLIVES.com
Cultural Creatives, 2000; Interview,
the LOHAS Market, 2002
The cultural creatives: 50 million individuals
co-creating the leading edge of social change
Schumpeter and the Endogeneity of Technology,
Myron Ross (A Gale of Creative Destruction, 1989)
Peter Schwartz, Co-Founder and Chairman, Global
Business Network. Bio.
Long Boom, 2000; "The
New View on the Next Decade," 2001; Inevitable
Thomas Seeley (The Wisdom of the Hive, 1995)
Stephen Waite (Quantum
Margaret Wheatley, Leadership
and the New Science: Learning about Organization from an Orderly
Universe, 1994/2001, A
Simpler Way, 1998; Turning
to One Another, 2002
Using complexity studies to grow organizations
like organisms, rather than construct them like machines
Josh Wolfe, Managing Partner, Lux Capital, Editor,
Will Wright, Chief Designer and Co-Founder, Maxis
(SimCity, Sims Online)
Change Leader Categories