Selected presentations by ASF President John Smart (email).
More may be found at his personal
site. See also our Articles
and Books page.
Audio
Aug 2011 | The Speculist - The World Transformed 2 Series
(AUDIO) Human
Destiny Transformed (120 minutes) Speculist hosts Phil Bowermaster
and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart, Venessa Meimis, Robin
Hanson, and Kevin Kelly on human destiny (where our civilization
may be headed) and how having a Big Picture view can empower us
in our daily lives. Enjoy!
Aug 2009 | The Speculist - The World Transformed Series
(AUDIO) Acceleration,
Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 1 (90 minutes) Acceleration,
Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 2 (85 minutes) Speculist
hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart
for a speculative Big Picture discussion of the long-term future
of human civilization. Enjoy!
May 2009 | WBAI. (AUDIO)
Six
Developments in Accelerating Change (mp3 audio, 29 mins, 13
MB) Equal Time for Free Thought host Arnell Dowret interviews
John Smart on Global Transparency, the Humbot, the Conversational
Interface, the Metaverse, the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm. A
survey of some major and apparently developmental emergences that
seem statistically likely to occur in the decades ahead. Disagree?
Let us know.
Video
Oct 2010 | Immersive Technology Summit 2010 (VIDEO)
Our Immersive Future
(18 mins). Thoughts on the ten year future of the videophone,
wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables, Memeshows,
and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization, intimacy,
collaboration, civics, education, addiction management, and decisionmaking.
For technologists and the general public. See also the deck
of 18 slides for this presentation.
Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (VIDEO)
The
Television Will Be Revolutionized (20 mins). Intro to perhaps
the most important media change of our generation: true internet
TV, with open video markup language standards. For more, see this
2-page
abstract, deck
of 16 slides, or 48-page
whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.
Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (VIDEO)
The Digital Self: When Social
Media Get Personal (22 mins) and Panel
Q&A (23 mins). Thoughts on near-term web developments
delivering the first real version of our "digital self."
Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin,
iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.
Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (VIDEO)
Metaverse 2.0: The Informational,
Social and Cognitive Heart of our Accelerating Future (32
mins). Intro to accelerating change, the NISCB tech pentad, and
some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social and Cognitive developments:
Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont Networks.
Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (VIDEO)
Evo Devo Universe? Part
1 (55 mins). Evo Devo
Universe? Part 2 (52 mins). What is predictable in universal
change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering,
and managing the future.
Feb 2009 | BIL 2009. (VIDEO)
Evo
Devo Universe? (23 mins). A brief introduction to the concepts
of universal evolution and universal development, and some implications
of an evo devo universe to humanity, should this model be supported
by future science.
Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame.
(VIDEO)
Foresight
Development in a World of Accelerating Change (1 hr, 27 mins).
Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability
in a world of accelerating technological change. For business
students.
Oct 2008 | Evo Devo Universe 2008. (VIDEO)
Evo Devo
Universe 2008 (3 mins). A brief video intro to the First
International Conference on the Evolution and Development of the
Universe (Paris, France).
Oct 2008 | Memebox Scenario. (VIDEO)
The
Potential of 'Symbiont Networks' (3 mins). A symbiont network
is a coming personal networking platform, possible with today's
4G networks, that will allow far more lasting and fine-grained
behavioral change for individuals than is presently possible,
and a whole new level of collective intelligence and adaptiveness
for groups of cognitively diverse people who are connected as
a symbiont.
Feb 2008 | Metaverse Roadmap Summit (VIDEO)
The
Benefits and Challenges of Coming Metaverse Technologies (5
mins). Metaverse U's Henrik Bennetsen interviewing John Smart
on the future of metaverse technologies: virtual worlds, mirror
worlds, augmented reality, lifelogging, and other intimate fusions
of our physical and digital worlds.
Oct 2007 | Singularity Summit 2007. (VIDEO)
Speaking
to the Web: A Conversation with John Smart. (17 minutes).
Accelerating change, and the unique capacities and future of inner
space. Autonomy trends, the coming conversational interface, the
cybertwin, and the valuecosm.
May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (VIDEO)
Searching
for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change
(22 mins). An introduction to the investigation accelerating change
from a universal perspective.
Slides
Dec 2011 | Navy Senior Leadership Seminar (SLIDES)
Adapting
to the Future (42 slides, 4 MB) Seeing and guiding accelerating
change. Extrapolation of some key IT and engineering trends in
the next ten years, and leadership and organizational innovation,
learning, and sustainability strategies. Capstone overview, for
Defense senior leaders.
July 2011 I COSMOS Program (SLIDES)
Evolutionary
Development, Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and Values
of Progress (56 slides, 5 MB). An introduction to evolutionary
and developmental processes, accelerating change, scenarios for
our digital future, and an outline of several evolutionary and
developmental values and potential measurements of the abstract
and slippery concept of social "progress." For high
school students interested in science, tech, engineering, and
math (STEM) fields.
Oct 2010 | Immersive Technologies (SLIDES) Our
Immersive Future: Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting
For (18 slides, 2 MB). Thoughts on the ten year future of
the videophone, wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables,
Memeshows, and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization,
intimacy, collaboration, civics, education, addiction management,
and decisionmaking. For technologists and the general public.
Oct 2010 | Royal Society, Chicheley Hall, UK. (SLIDES)
The
Transcension Hypothesis: Cosmic Censorship of Advanced Civilizations
(14 slides, 2 MB). Overview of my 2002
Fermi Paradox paper, which argues that advanced civilizations
are developmentally constrained to go to inner space, not outer
space, as they gain complexity. Explores the implications of accelerating
change, miniaturization, ephemeralization, densification, and
simulation for our civilization from a long-term universal reference
frame. See The
Transcension Hypothesis, 2011, for an update of the 2002 article,
based on this presentation.
Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (SLIDES) The
Television Will Be Revolutionized (16 Slides 1MB). Overview
of perhaps the most important media change of our generation:
true internet TV, with open video markup language standards. For
more, see this 2-page
abstract, or the full 48-page
whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.
Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (SLIDES) The
Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal (22 slides, 2
MB). Applying evolutionary and developmental thinking to near-term
web developments delivering the first real version of our digital
self. Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin,
iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.
Mar 2010 | POST Command College. (SLIDES) Adapting
to the Future (142 slides, 9 MB) Understanding and guiding
accelerating change, factors in improving technology foresight.
Daylong workshop for law enforcement leadership.
Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (SLIDES) Metaverse
2.0: The Informational, Social and Cognitive Heart of Our Accelerating
Future (40 slides, 2 MB). Intro to accelerating change, the
NISCB tech pentad, and some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social
and Cognitive developments: Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont
Networks.
Sep 2009 | Santa Fe Institute Biz Net. (SLIDES)
Evo
Devo Universe? A Speculative Framework for Thinking About Unpredictable
and Predictable Aspects of Universal Change (125 slides, 7MB).
Where does universal intelligence go in the long run? In the short
run? What aspects of the future seem not evolutionary, but developmental?
How do we get to a science of prediction?
Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (SLIDES) Evo
Devo Universe?: A Speculative Framework for Thinking About the
Future (124 slides, 7MB). What is predictable in universal
change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering,
and managing the future.
Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame.
(SLIDES) Foresight
Development in a World of Accelerating Change (69 slides,
3 MB). Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability
in a world of accelerating technological change. For business
students.
Jul 2008 | World Future Society. (SLIDES) Selling
and Teaching Foresight Development (115 slides, 7 MB). How
to pitch the dean on starting a required (core) undergrad course
in FD, and overview of ASF's FD course. For would-be educators.
Jul 2008 | Mindshare LA. (SLIDES) Five
Questions (41 slides, 3 MB). Conjectures
on the universe, our relation to the universe, and the importance
of foresight/futures work. For a general audience.
Jul 2008 | Army Science Board. (SLIDES) Adapting
to the Future (89 slides, 7 MB). Unclassified 1.5 hr brief
on trends and scenarios in accelerating change. For advisors to
senior Army staff.
Jul 2007 | Korean Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology.
(SLIDES) The
Limits of BIology, the Promise of Technology (107 slides,
9 MB). Arguments why nanotech, mechtech and infotech will have
far broader social impacts than biotech in coming years. For undergrads.
Apr 2007 | National Air and Space Intelligence Center.
(SLIDES) Adapting
to the Future (249 slides, 19 MB). Daylong workshop on guiding
accelerating change for strategic advantage. For NASIC staff.
May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (SLIDES) Searching
for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change
(90 slides, 8 MB). An introduction to the investigation of accelerating
change from a universal perspective.
Jan 2006 | Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14. (SLIDES)
Accelerating
Change Toolkit (147 slides, 6 MB). Assumptions, processes,
studies, skillsets, trends, and scenarios in accelerating change.
For physician-innovators.
Nov 2005 | Tamkang University. (SLIDES) How
to be a Strategic Futurist (169 slides, 6 MB). An integral
approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating
future. For futurists.
Oct 2005 | Army War College. (SLIDES) How
to be a Strategic Futurist (160 slides, 6 MB). An integral
approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating
future. For military leaders.
Jun 2005 | University of Advancing Technology. (SLIDES)
How
to be a Tech Futurist (111 slides, 4 MB). Some considerations
for predicting, managing, and creating in a world of accelerating
change.
Apr 2005 | Las Vegas Future Salon. (SLIDES) Catalyzing
the Symbiotic Age (114 slides, 6 MB). Discovering, managing,
and creating the next great emergences in human-machine symbiosis.
Apr
2005 | U of Houston, Studies of the Future MS Program. (SLIDES)
Online
Community Design (53 slides, 3 MB). A survey of current tools,
tips, and techniques for effective online community design and
management.
Mar
2005 | FBI Futures Working Group. (SLIDES) Security
and Policing in 2015 (114 slides, 2 MB). Considerations for
FBI leadership and innovation in homeland security and policing
in the coming decade.
Nov 2004 | Accelerating Change Conference: The
Symbiotic Age (35 slides, 3 MB). Accelerating change, the
CUI, avatars, personality capture, and trends in human-machine
symbiosis.
Oct 2004 | Space Frontier Conference. (SLIDES) Exploring
Micro and Macro Frontiers (61 slides, 3 MB). Advancing research
in the amazing world of inner space leads us to greater achievements
in outer space.
Oct 2004 | World Technology Summit. (SLIDES) Intro
to Accelerating Change (34 slides, 2 MB). A brief overview
of accelerating change for a panel convened by the World Technology
Network.
Apr 2004 | L.A. Future Salon. (SLIDES) Singularity
Economics (96 slides, 7 MB). Thoughts on the history of acceleration,
evolutionary development, hierarchical emergence, autonomy and
economics.
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