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Slides, Audio, and Video

Selected presentations by ASF President John Smart (email). More may be found at his personal site. See also our Articles and Books page.

Slides

Jul 2013 | World Future Society 2013 (SLIDES) Leadership of Technological Change (35 slides, 5MB) Intro to a strategically useful theory of change and foresight, a preview of coming disruptions, opportunities and threats in ten key areas of technology change, some great books in each of these areas, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change. For organizational leaders and self-leaders (folks who vision, prioritize, and plan their personal futures).

Jan 2013 | West 2013 (SLIDES) Leadership of Technological Change (33 slides + 15 backup, 5 MB) Intro to a strategically useful theory of change for leaders, a brief survey of coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats of interest to the defense leader, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change. Keynote at the USNI West Conference. For defense, IT, and Navy leaders.

Jun 2012 | Singularity University (SLIDES) Global Grand Challenges (24 slides, 2 MB) Tips on gaining strategic vision, self-knowledge, tools, and network behaviors to address global grand challenges. Ideas on finding and selecting the best benefit-cost ratio challenge for each student's skills, motivation, and world view. For SU GSP2012 students.

Apr 2012 | Tedx Del Mar (SLIDES) Ten Areas of Technological Change (14 slides, 2 MB) Outline of major changes and continuities leaders can expect over the next twenty years in ten key domains of technological change, with strategic implications and reading list. See also readahead article for this talk: Ten Areas of Tech Change (4 pages, Web or PDF).

Dec 2011 | Navy Senior Leadership Seminar (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (42 slides, 4 MB) Seeing and guiding accelerating change. Extrapolation of some key IT and engineering trends in the next ten years, and leadership and organizational innovation, learning, and sustainability strategies. Capstone overview, for Defense senior leaders.

July 2011 I COSMOS Program (SLIDES) Evolutionary Development, Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and Values of Progress (56 slides, 5 MB). An introduction to evolutionary and developmental processes, accelerating change, scenarios for our digital future, and an outline of several evolutionary and developmental values and potential measurements of the abstract and slippery concept of social "progress." For high school students interested in science, tech, engineering, and math (STEM) fields.

Oct 2010 | Immersive Technologies (SLIDES) Our Immersive Future: Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For (18 slides, 2 MB). Thoughts on the ten year future of the videophone, wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables, Memeshows, and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization, intimacy, collaboration, civics, education, addiction management, and decisionmaking. For technologists and the general public.

Oct 2010 | Royal Society, Chicheley Hall, UK. (SLIDES) The Transcension Hypothesis: Cosmic Censorship of Advanced Civilizations (14 slides, 2 MB). Overview of my 2002 Fermi Paradox paper, which argues that advanced civilizations are developmentally constrained to go to inner space, not outer space, as they gain complexity. Explores the implications of accelerating change, miniaturization, ephemeralization, densification, and simulation for our civilization from a long-term universal reference frame. See The Transcension Hypothesis, 2011, for an update of the 2002 article, based on this presentation.

Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (SLIDES) The Television Will Be Revolutionized (16 Slides 1MB). Overview of perhaps the most important media change of our generation: true internet TV, with open video markup language standards. For more, see this 2-page abstract, or the full 48-page whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.

Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (SLIDES) The Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal (22 slides, 2 MB). Applying evolutionary and developmental thinking to near-term web developments delivering the first real version of our digital self. Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin, iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.

Mar 2010 | POST Command College. (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (142 slides, 9 MB) Understanding and guiding accelerating change, factors in improving technology foresight. Daylong workshop for law enforcement leadership.

Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (SLIDES) Metaverse 2.0: The Informational, Social and Cognitive Heart of Our Accelerating Future (40 slides, 2 MB). Intro to accelerating change, the NISCB tech pentad, and some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social and Cognitive developments: Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont Networks.

Sep 2009 | Santa Fe Institute Biz Net. (SLIDES) Evo Devo Universe? A Speculative Framework for Thinking About Unpredictable and Predictable Aspects of Universal Change (125 slides, 7MB). Where does universal intelligence go in the long run? In the short run? What aspects of the future seem not evolutionary, but developmental? How do we get to a science of prediction?

Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (SLIDES) Evo Devo Universe?: A Speculative Framework for Thinking About the Future (124 slides, 7MB). What is predictable in universal change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering, and managing the future.

Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame. (SLIDES) Foresight Development in a World of Accelerating Change (69 slides, 3 MB). Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability in a world of accelerating technological change. For business students.

Jul 2008 | World Future Society. (SLIDES) Selling and Teaching Foresight Development (115 slides, 7 MB). How to pitch the dean on starting a required (core) undergrad course in FD, and overview of ASF's FD course. For would-be educators.

Jul 2008 | Mindshare LA. (SLIDES) Five Questions (41 slides, 3 MB). Conjectures on the universe, our relation to the universe, and the importance of foresight/futures work. For a general audience.

Jul 2008 | Army Science Board. (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (89 slides, 7 MB). Unclassified 1.5 hr brief on trends and scenarios in accelerating change. For advisors to senior Army staff.

Jul 2007 | Korean Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology. (SLIDES) The Limits of BIology, the Promise of Technology (107 slides, 9 MB). Arguments why nanotech, mechtech and infotech will have far broader social impacts than biotech in coming years. For undergrads.

Apr 2007 | National Air and Space Intelligence Center. (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (249 slides, 19 MB). Daylong workshop on guiding accelerating change for strategic advantage. For NASIC staff.

May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (SLIDES) Searching for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change (90 slides, 8 MB). An introduction to the investigation of accelerating change from a universal perspective.

Jan 2006 | Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14. (SLIDES) Accelerating Change Toolkit (147 slides, 6 MB). Assumptions, processes, studies, skillsets, trends, and scenarios in accelerating change. For physician-innovators.

Nov 2005 | Tamkang University. (SLIDES) How to be a Strategic Futurist (169 slides, 6 MB). An integral approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating future. For futurists.

Oct 2005 | Army War College. (SLIDES) How to be a Strategic Futurist (160 slides, 6 MB). An integral approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating future. For military leaders.

Jun 2005 | University of Advancing Technology. (SLIDES) How to be a Tech Futurist (111 slides, 4 MB). Some considerations for predicting, managing, and creating in a world of accelerating change.

Apr 2005 | Las Vegas Future Salon. (SLIDES) Catalyzing the Symbiotic Age (114 slides, 6 MB). Discovering, managing, and creating the next great emergences in human-machine symbiosis.

Apr 2005 | U of Houston, Studies of the Future MS Program. (SLIDES) Online Community Design (53 slides, 3 MB). A survey of current tools, tips, and techniques for effective online community design and management.

Mar 2005 | FBI Futures Working Group. (SLIDES) Security and Policing in 2015 (114 slides, 2 MB). Considerations for FBI leadership and innovation in homeland security and policing in the coming decade.

Nov 2004 | Accelerating Change Conference: The Symbiotic Age (35 slides, 3 MB). Accelerating change, the CUI, avatars, personality capture, and trends in human-machine symbiosis.

Oct 2004 | Space Frontier Conference. (SLIDES) Exploring Micro and Macro Frontiers (61 slides, 3 MB). Advancing research in the amazing world of inner space leads us to greater achievements in outer space.

Oct 2004 | World Technology Summit. (SLIDES) Intro to Accelerating Change (34 slides, 2 MB). A brief overview of accelerating change for a panel convened by the World Technology Network.

Apr 2004 | L.A. Future Salon. (SLIDES) Singularity Economics (96 slides, 7 MB). Thoughts on the history of acceleration, evolutionary development, hierarchical emergence, autonomy and economics.

Audio

Aug 2011 | The Speculist - The World Transformed 2 Series (AUDIO) Human Destiny Transformed (120 minutes) Speculist hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart, Venessa Meimis, Robin Hanson, and Kevin Kelly on human destiny (where our civilization may be headed) and how having a Big Picture view can empower us in our daily lives. Enjoy!

Aug 2009 | The Speculist - The World Transformed Series (AUDIO) Acceleration, Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 1 (90 minutes) Acceleration, Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 2 (85 minutes) Speculist hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart for a speculative Big Picture discussion of the long-term future of human civilization. Enjoy!

May 2009 | WBAI. (AUDIO) Six Developments in Accelerating Change (mp3 audio, 29 mins, 13 MB) Equal Time for Free Thought host Arnell Dowret interviews John Smart on Global Transparency, the Humbot, the Conversational Interface, the Metaverse, the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm. A survey of some major and apparently developmental emergences that seem statistically likely to occur in the decades ahead. Disagree? Let us know.

Video

Jan 2013 | West 2013 Leadership of Technological Change (37 mins). Intro to a strategically useful theory of change for leaders, a selection of major coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats due to accelerating technological change, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change that can be employed by middle and senior mgmt. Concludes with a Navy brand vision for an "Open Oceans GIS Platform". Keynote at the USNI West Conference. See also slides.

Oct 2010 | Immersive Technology Summit 2010 (VIDEO) Our Immersive Future (18 mins). Thoughts on the ten year future of the videophone, wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables, Memeshows, and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization, intimacy, collaboration, civics, education, addiction management, and decisionmaking. For technologists and the general public. See also the deck of 18 slides for this presentation.

Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (VIDEO) The Television Will Be Revolutionized (20 mins). Intro to perhaps the most important media change of our generation: true internet TV, with open video markup language standards. For more, see this 2-page abstract, deck of 16 slides, or 48-page whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.

Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (VIDEO) The Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal (22 mins) and Panel Q&A (23 mins). Thoughts on near-term web developments delivering the first real version of our "digital self." Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin, iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.

Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (VIDEO) Metaverse 2.0: The Informational, Social and Cognitive Heart of our Accelerating Future (32 mins). Intro to accelerating change, the NISCB tech pentad, and some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social and Cognitive developments: Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont Networks.

Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (VIDEO) Evo Devo Universe? Part 1 (55 mins). Evo Devo Universe? Part 2 (52 mins). What is predictable in universal change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering, and managing the future.

Feb 2009 | BIL 2009. (VIDEO) Evo Devo Universe? (23 mins). A brief introduction to the concepts of universal evolution and universal development, and some implications of an evo devo universe to humanity, should this model be supported by future science.

Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame. (VIDEO) Foresight Development in a World of Accelerating Change (1 hr, 27 mins). Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability in a world of accelerating technological change. For business students.

Oct 2008 | Evo Devo Universe 2008. (VIDEO) Evo Devo Universe 2008 (3 mins). A brief video intro to the First International Conference on the Evolution and Development of the Universe (Paris, France).

Oct 2008 | Memebox Scenario. (VIDEO) The Potential of 'Symbiont Networks' (3 mins). A symbiont network is a coming personal networking platform, possible with today's 4G networks, that will allow far more lasting and fine-grained behavioral change for individuals than is presently possible, and a whole new level of collective intelligence and adaptiveness for groups of cognitively diverse people who are connected as a symbiont.

Feb 2008 | Metaverse Roadmap Summit (VIDEO) The Benefits and Challenges of Coming Metaverse Technologies (5 mins). Metaverse U's Henrik Bennetsen interviewing John Smart on the future of metaverse technologies: virtual worlds, mirror worlds, augmented reality, lifelogging, and other intimate fusions of our physical and digital worlds.

Oct 2007 | Singularity Summit 2007. (VIDEO) Speaking to the Web: A Conversation with John Smart. (17 minutes). Accelerating change, and the unique capacities and future of inner space. Autonomy trends, the coming conversational interface, the cybertwin, and the valuecosm.

May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (VIDEO) Searching for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change (22 mins). An introduction to the investigation accelerating change from a universal perspective.

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