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Strategic Insights in Accelerating Technological Change

00 Month, 2006
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Announcements
See Coming Events for conferences, seminars, and salons we recommend.

Happy New Year to our acceleration-aware friends and colleagues everywhere. Have you stopped to take a topsight perspective on your life's accomplishments so far? Reconsidered your future? Counted your blessings? One New Year's Ritual we recommend is reading Edge.org's Annual Question and responses (Jan 1, 2006: "What is your dangerous idea?"). Write your own response after reading these if you can and share it with your friends! Sorry for the two month delay in publishing. We're back in the saddle and ready to ride again. Thanks for all your emails and support in 2005.

Metaverse Roadmap Project
[Jerry Paffendorf ] ASF is embarking on a major foresight project in 2006: the Metaverse Roadmap: Pathways to the 3D Web. For a brief intro to technology roadmaps, see our Roadmapping page. For an overview of the project, see our Metaverse Roadmap (MVR) page. The MVR is made possible by generous start-up support from The Electric Sheep Company. We are creating a team of partner companies and organizations interested in supporting the project. Partners to date include the Arden Institute virtual worlds research center at Indiana University and the State of Play conference on law, video games, and virtual worlds at the New York Law School. Email ASF Research Director Jerry Paffendorf to join the project, or for more information.

Project and Event Manager(s) Needed
[John Smart] ASF is seeking one or two bright, energetic managers with strong organizational skills and a passion for serving technology and futures communities. We are paying $15-20/hour ($30-40K salary for full time) for an individual or individuals to lead several of our 2006 projects and events. The position(s) involve administrative and budgeting work as needed, and require a great phone presence and willingness to make contacts for network building and occasional pitches to potential sponsors. One benefit is that the manager can work from their home, managing our ASF team online and through daily conference calls. Either full- or part-time are available. If you or someone you know is interested in the position, let us know! You can also send a resume and references to John Smart, and find more in the MVR Project Manager Job Description at our public wiki.

Charitable Donations for 2006
Start the new year off right with an act of foresight and philanthropy. Pledge $50 to a worthy cause, the Acceleration Studies Foundation, the only 501c3 educational nonprofit dedicated to improving understanding and guidance of accelerating processes of planetary change. Your contributions are tax deductible, and will greatly help us serve our community in 2006. You can donate to our Bear Sterns endowment account (where the donated principal generates interest income for the ASF in perpetuity), to our general fund, or to any of our specific projects, such as building our Future Salon Network, producing our acclaimed conference, Accelerating Change, writing our Foresight Development university coursework curricula, doing top-quality technology roadmapping research, or creating great future-oriented podcasts next year! See our Donations page for donation options.

Tamkang University's Ph.D. in Futures Studies
ASF Board Member Iveta Brigis and I were in Taiwan last month for the annual foresight conference of Tamkang University. Tamkang is uniquely committed to foresight development in that it is the only university in the world that requires all its undergraduates (27,000 of them) to take at least three courses in thinking about the future in order to graduate. ASF wants to bring this standard to the U.S. as well. Tamkang offers 15 futures courses at the undergraduate level, from personal development, to careers, to a range of topics in national and global futures, and about as many at the Master's level as well. In one of the trip highlights for us, Dr. Clement Chang, president of the university, invited ASF to help Tamkang develop curriculum for their Ph.D. program in Futures Studies, which they plan to inaugurate circa 2008. If any of you have an interest in developing acceleration-aware foresight curriculum at the university level, let us know what you'd like to research. There's a world full of students out there waiting to understand the history and future of technology in a very powerful and practical new way.

Quotography
“You don’t have to dominate the food chain to get by in the Web world; you can find a productive niche and thrive, partially because you’re building on the information value created by the rest of the Web.” — Steven Johnson, “Web 2.0 Arrives”, Discover 10.05

“When you harness collective intelligence and the power of blogging, it doesn’t [at first] mean power to the individuals. It means power to the people best able to aggregate those individuals. Google is a profoundly powerful company because it has figured out algorithmically to learn from [hundreds of] millions of people at once.” — Tim O’Reilly

"The stock market will lower to 6,000 and then accelerate to the equivalent of 30,000 points by 2020." — Patricia Moody and Richard Morley, The Technology Machine: How Manufacturing Will Work in the Year 2020,1999.


Resources
Cool tools, software, hardware, communities, and doo-dads we recommend to our community. Share your finds with us!

Software
CCleaner.com (Crap Cleaner): System Optimization Freeware
Try this great spyware-free system optimization program for deleting cookies, temporary files and other 'crap' from your cache on IE, Firefox, in the Windows Registry, Recycle Bin, etc. 12 million people have downloaded this application so far. It took me 11 secs to delete 600 MB of crap off my laptop, and 67 seconds to delete 1.6MB of crap off my desktop machine. My browsers are much snappier now. I run it on the first of every month, when I do my scheduled backups. Wish I could get it to automatically 'take out the trash', but maybe we'll see that in the next version. If you are using IE and want faster browsing, you should also set your Temporary Internet Files (TIF) Cache to 50 MB instead of 350 MB. Under XP, go to Tools>Internet Options>General>"Settings" button to find the TIF cache and change the value from the default 350 to the speedier 50.

Hardware
Sony's VAIO VGN-TX and Verizon's BroadbandAccess Card: An Ultraconnected Ultraportable Laptop, Sept 2005
At 2.7 pounds and with a carbon-fiber body this laptop is ultraportable. I carry it in a small backpack when I leave the house—almost a wearable like the TummyPC. This was the hot ticket in the electronics district in Taipei when we visited there last month. It recently debuted in the U.S. as well, for the same price: $2,200. The new Vaio has several features (like a DVD burner) you wouldn't expect in anything this small, but the neatest thing is the screen. It's barely an eighth of an inch thick, lighter and thinner than any we've seen before, and incredibly bright. The reason it's so bright and crisp is because the entire backplane is white organic LED (the "light source of the future") with an LCD screen overlaid on it. That makes it far more energy efficient than other screens to date, giving the laptop 6.5 hours of real-world battery life (or 10 hrs with the extended battery), twice as long as previous models.

Don't buy the U.S. version, the VGN-TX670GP, because it comes with the Cingular 2.5G cellular modem installed, which is significantly slower than home broadband. Instead order the international version from your local Sony store, the VGN-TX17GP, and then for ultraconnectivity, go to your local Verizon store and get their BroadbandAccess 3G EVDO card ($80/month, unlimited bandwidth) on a one year contract. This is the only setup in the U.S. at present that I know of that will let you surf the internet at better than cable modem and DSL speeds, from anywhere you can get cellphone reception, including as a passenger in a car driving at 60 miles an hour. That makes it either Star Trek technology or the minimum requirement for 21st century living, depending on your attitude with regard to these things.


The Acceleration Story

Each month ATimes considers processes of change in five "spaces," providing one to three briefs in each space. The story of accelerating change, the most fascinating story of our time, can be told as a story of movement from outer, to human, to inner, to cyber, and ultimately, to hyper space, the world beyond the present. Each of these contributes to a multidisciplinary understanding of the future:

Outer Space (the world around us: science, the natural and built environment, universal systems)
Human Space (the human world: our bodies, behavior, minds, human systems)
Inner Space (the world below: energy, small tech, computer "bodies", inner systems)
Cyber Space (the virtual world: computer "behavior", computer "minds", cyber systems)
Hyper Space (the world beyond: new paradigms, phase transitions, hyperphysics, hyper systems)

If you have important stories to share with our acceleration-aware readers, we'd love to hear from you


Outer Space
Science (biology, chemistry, geology, physics, research), the natural and built environment, universal systems (developmental physics, hierarchical substrates)

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Human Space
Bodies (biology, health, neuroscience), behavior (business, education, foresight, governance, innovation, pre-digital technology, society), minds (psychology, spirituality), human systems (ecological psychology, memetics)

Collective Rights/Democracy
A Democracy of Groups, First Monday, Beth Noveck, Dec 2005
[JS] Beth Noveck gave one of the neatest presentations (on reforming the U.S. patent system) at AC2005. Here she explores an issue rarely discussed in our consumer culture of leisure individualism: the growing rights and democratic powers of groups, a process sure to be a major influence on the future. The twentieth century was defined economically (and to a lesser extent, legally) by the rise of the corporation, a major new multi-state, multinational network of groups. The twenty first century will clearly continue that trend, but add great new powers to smaller and less commercial groups within the network as well. Beyond the incremental improvements we are already seeing in online collaboration and education, I think the last critical step needed to empower all smaller groups will be an infrastructure capable of supporting better online preference-sharing, polling, and voting. Free group survey tools like SurveyMonkey.com are good first efforts toward making our group minds open to reflection and refinement. In the same way that it took a relatively well-developed trade and finance infrastructure before corporate law could come into its own, an infrastructure of full digital democracy (first at the local and state levels, if history is precedent) would be a force capable of reforming plutocratic power structures that are well defined at the state and individual rights levels, but presently poorly developed in the "excluded middle" of groups, as Noveck notes. After reading her fantastic piece, you might also enjoy my
also my discussion of the network-oriented concept of the "valuecosm" (section B3 of this scenario) for another example of how groups may be greatly empowered by tomorrow's IT infrastructures. Thanks to Tim Moenk for the link.

Linguistics/Neuroscience
Clarifying the Language-Perception Debate, World Science, 26 Dec 2005
[JS] U.C. Berkeley researcher Aubrey Gilbert and colleagues have brought some clarity to the persistent but controversial Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis (the theory that your language shapes your perceptions, thought, and even nature of consciousness). Using split-brain glasses and simple color distinction experiments, as reported in this week's PNAS, Gilbert et. al. have discovered Whorf was half right: Language does shape our perception, but only in the left half of the brain! (Remember your psychology class mnemonics? Left is for "Language and Logic", Right is for "Ridiculous" (Emotion, Art, Humor, General Silliness, etc.). Perhaps this means our right hemisphere keeps us all on a common footing emotionally, regardless of culture. What an excellent design, if any of us can only be half-misunderstood at most, as long as we always remember to pay attention to the nonverbal cues of our fellow conversants!
Thanks to Alvis Brigis for this excellent hit.


Inner Space
Energy, small tech (nanoengineering, miniaturization), computer "bodies" (automation, computer hardware, nanotech, robotics), inner systems (acceleration, efficiency, miniaturization, reductionism)

Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology and the Poor, Meridian Institute, Jan 2005 (29p PDF)
[JS] This foresighted study by the famous conflict-resolution group Meridian considers the great potential benefit to the developing world of the $3.7B being spent annually on nanotech internationally. This level of research investment is already twice the highest annual outlay that occurred during the Human Genome Project. That seems about right to me, as the next-generation yields of biotech are likely to be much less dramatic than most futurists anticipate. Nanotech, however, can be implemented on fast technological rather than slow biological timescales, in a wide range of global platforms
. In addition to great new products like Argonide's NanoCeram electropositive filters and Seldon Lab's Nanomesh for clean water, the report mentions nanoenvironmental and health issues that are only now beginning to be assessed. None of this is nanotech in the Drexlerian self-replicating assembler vision (as described best to date in Kinematic Self Replicating Machines, Bob Freitas Jr. and Ralph Merkle, 2004) but rather the exploitation of fascinating new properties that occur in materials science and manufacturing processes when we get them very small. Want a trivial example? Try Ghirardelli's new chocolate powders. They are ground so finely they dissolve instantly in water, making the others seem positively primitive. Nanochoc for the world, hurrah!

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Cyber Space
Computer "behavior" (co-evolution, automation, symbiosis), computer "minds" (computer software, simulation), cyber systems (holism, information, intelligence, interdependence, immunity)

Webisphere
What is Web 2.0, OReillynet.com, Tim O'Reilly, 30 Sep 2005
[JS] Good brief (5 page) introduction to the new technologies, standards, and infrastructure capacities of the post-bubble web. Such advances are the infrastructure powering the next-generation collaborative economy and society. In just two short years since its coining the term Web 2.0 has come to mean quite a number of things. Tim's article begins with a history lesson and ends with a discussion of new web services protocols like AJAX, and some of the opportunities of this new, more complex interaction environment, including a few Web 2.0 Design Prescriptions. Beyond the marketing buzzword, I believe Web 2.0 portends some very valuable new business models, and by extension, a selective stock market resurgence in coming years. Keep your eyes and ears open (and don't sell your Google stock), interesting things are beginning to happen in this space. Thanks to Tim Moenk.

Metaverse
A Year in Second Life, Slashdot | Games, Zonk, 29 Dec 05
[JP] Two cool announcements were recently made at ASF’s Second Life Future Salon. First, future salon presenter Phillip Torrone, Associate Editor of MAKE Magazine, announced that O’Reilly Publishing, the world’s largest independent publisher of technology books, will create a book called Second Life Hacks (see this post for more). That kind of exposure should bring a lot of new creativity to this fast-growing virtual world. Second, SLFS blog contributor Glitchy Gumshoe (SL name) announced on the SL Future Salon blog that he’ll be producing an SL fashion show for MTV’s Overdrive online channel and made a call for participation (announcement here). OK all you virtual designers, here's a good opportunity to get some crossover exposure!

Search
Changes Blur the Scenery along the Digital Divide, SEO Blog, 16 Nov 2005

[JS] Great article on how rapidly the internet search engine space is evolving, with Google Analytics, Google Base, Yahoo Publishers Network, and other recent innovations. Stunning rates of progress!


Hyper Space
New paradigms (including evolutionary development), phase transitions, hyperphysics (black holes, multiverse, string theory, supersymmetry), hyper systems (computational limits, emergence, phase transitions, singularity hypotheses)

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Metahumanity or Homo technians: Metaman, Greg Stock, 1993
I am rereading Stock's excellent 1993 book, subtitled The Merging of Machines into a Global Superorganism, a concise and well-referenced update of William Wheeler's (1928) superorganism hypothesis, the idea that animals and their technology (termites, in Wheeler's observation) form a single living system. Stock calls the human-technology superorganism 'Metaman', I would call it 'Metahumanity', and

valuable term as Meta- stands for above, and has the excellent connotation of metamorphosis, which

More precisely, we are talking about, Homo technians, a new species of human being that is fundamentally dependent on its technology for survival. The species label makes sense here because for all practical purposes technology-dependent

 

with non-tool using human beings, for cultural reasons). and that the human-technology symbiosis must be considered as a total system when we make technological, economic, policy, and social choices. To make decisions by considering any part in isolation will often miss the developmental trajectory of the system as a whole, and lead to poor resul


Write about Metaman! The piece Greg Stock missed.

Homo technians. Kevin Kelly's Technium.

New TF&SC Article on Kurzweil.

Sing is Near Review (by John Smart)
Publish to web. Link to it here.

 

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Fun
We all deserve a double dose of fun and happiness every day. Send in your entries for the next ATimes!

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Category
Pandora.com - Internet Radio Grows Up
Customized "stations" built based on your tastes. You can maintain up to 100 stations at a time and access them from any computer.Plug in an artist or song you like and Pandora will serve you more in the same style. Click on each song as it is playing and you can thumbs up or thubs down their selections, which is supposed to adapt based on your feedback. You can save the titles of your favorite songs. The ad-based version is free. I set my first radio station on Paul Oakenfold and got a day long few-repeat no-commercials trance track in the background. Then I tried Ambient Generation as my next seed and got some great ambient, though here the selection was more repetitive.

Eventually we'll see this on our iPods too, of course. If you had a choice, why would you ever listen to music without being able to have it intelligently respond to your feedback? One of the downsides is that their music licenses limit the number of songs you can skip, and they don't let you back up and replay. Looking forward to the future evolution of these kid of "conversational" music interfaces!


Call for Submissions
ASF is always seeking interesting submissions for our Accelerating Times (AT) web publication. AT is a "free and priceless" monthly newsletter covering scientific, technological, business, policy, and social dialogs in accelerating change. Anyone may submit scan hits, mini-articles, pictures, artwork, quotes and questions to mail(at)accelerating.org. Accepted work will appear, fully credited, in future issues. Also please submit your feedback on Accelerating Times articles to the Future Salon Weblog, beneath each article as posted. Thanks!

 

To Move Above

 

Outer Space

EnergyCS: Transforming our Electric Future
As ClimateStar.org and the Union of Concerned Scientists note, the vehicle you drive has the single largest impact on global warming of any action you take. For each gallon of gas burned, twenty pounds of heat-trapping CO2 is released into the atmosphere."

Nanobatteries

 

Next ATimes

Announcements

On Foresight Development: Tamkang and UAT.

Talk about Sara Robinson and my efforts, if they've been going on.

A good futures course will be tailored to the students career interests, and cover the practical foresight tools that professionals use when they make strategic decisions. It will help students learn to do excellent environmental scanning, to extrapolate current trends, to consider scenarios for possible shifts in the technology landscape, and to develop good intuition for the most likely near and longer term future. As many companies with formal and informal futuring groups in the U.S. have discovered (Shell, Dow, Intel, Electronic Arts, American Cancer Society, etc.), such intuition can greatly improve the return on the bets they make in their companies, projects, skillsets, and personal careers. In addition to a few required general courses, Tamkang ensures that foresight methods and concepts are embedded in all classes in the university curriculum. It may be this commitment to building strategic foresight in its students that has kept Tamkang ranked #1 in private universities by Taiwan's employers for eight consecutive years, by two surveys. They began their futures requirements ten years ago, in 1995.

If you know of any universities besides UAT that would be interested in having ASF help in developing general or integrated futures curricula for their students, please let us know at mail@accelerating.org. I am confident that every university that follows Tamkang's example would be highly regarded by both students and employers, and gain a competitive benefit distinguishing their institution

Resources

David Allen's Getting Things Done Outlook Add-In, $69.95
Implementing David Allen's Workflow Processing Using Microsoft Outlook, $10
If you've read Allen's very helpful 2003 book on stress-free productivity, you know how important it is to have and use a system for delegating, deferring, creating, and managing tasks, one that has a place for everything, including tasks waiting for responses from others. Allen's "Mind like Water" metaphor (the ripples respond not too much, not too little, but just enough to each new impact, then quickly get back to equilibrium) has been very helpful for me.

If you're ready to bring his system to Outlook, here's the best way to start. At Allen's personal productivity website you'll find a 37 page e-book ($10) a "step-by-step manual for optimizing Outlook as a personal productivity tool" using his system. If you've ever tried to use Outlook's Tasks before (less than 1% of use them) and found them too cumbersome (as I have), this e-book will give you new confidence to integrate them into your life, and improve your use of the Calendar, Notes, Contacts, and other features you may use only rarely at present. Also see Jeff Sandquist's one year old blog article on using GTD, it links to lots of good implementation references.You can use the eBook to manually configure Outlook for Allen's system, but if you want a shortcut (which may not be advisable for those of us who need to really think about systems in order to implement them) you can buy a $70 plug in allows you bring Allen's workflow system to Outlook. The site has good web demos and a reasonably satisfied user forum. Unfortunately, the software still looks a bit buggy at Version 2.1, some folks have experienced problems with the task management tools and cryptic errors. Uninstalling the plug-in is easy enough, but you can't revert all the changes you've done once you've begun using it. So if you want to be safe, I would recommend making a copy of the download before you install it and then trying it on your second computer, with a backup Outlook pst file, using a back up online email address. If it behaves reasonably well for a month you can then install it on your primary computer. Otherwise, just do it all manually with the $10 ebook.

Cloudmark's Desktop/SpamNet

The tipping point has been reached in community based filtering. Desktop is even better than Mail Frontier, our previously most recommended filter, according to PC World's latest reviews.With 1.5 million users/spam raters, Desktop (formerly called SpamNet) has reached an eBay/Amazon/delicious level of leverage. $40/year covers up to two computers at a time. Outlook and OE users only. Has separate spam and fraud identification buttons. If you only get your email a few times a day (vs. constantly) you'll find less than 2% of your emails will be spam, even if you have a public email address, as I do. This elegant system ensures no false positives (legitimate emails in your spam folder) as someone else had to mark a message spam in order for it to go into your spam folder. With this many users, spam exists for as little as 20 seconds before it is tagged and the system starts filtering it out. If you mark something as safe when others mark it as spam your reputation and ability to influence the system rapidly goes to zero, so spammers, who are always in the minority, can't trash the system. Immune systems always win! Harnessing the power of the community!

Fun

Sid Meier's Civilization IV. Addictive! (Wikipedia entry, official site)

Book

How to Survive a Robot Uprising, Daniel Wilson.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1582345929/

Guns, Germs & Steel ($49 DVD). Slow and watered down but probably good for those new to Diamond's ideas.

Tarnation (Lifelog Film)
http://www.i-saw-tarnation.com/

Crazy Cat Antics. Quick download if you have broadband.. http://www.unoriginal.co.uk/footage4_4.html Thanks to Mattea Manning

ASF

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Quotography

Resources

NEWS

The Acceleration Story...

Outerspace1

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Innerspace1

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Cyberspace1

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Hyperspace1

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AC2005 SPONSORS

Gold Sponsor

Thanks to DFJ for early sponsorship of AC2005!


COMING EVENTS


AAAI Spring Symposium
March 21-23
Palo Alto, CA

APF Spring Meeting: Futures Insurrection
March 31 - April 2
Miami, FL


JPL Astrobiology Lecture Series: The Galaxy Evolution Explorer
April 20 and 21
Pasadena , CA


TAICON2005: Tools for the Development of Humanity
April 25-26
Washington, DC

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